Comments on: Blind Men, Elephants and Snake Oil http://www.westglobal.com/blog/2008/06/26/blind-men-elephants-and-snake-oil/ From the creators of Vantify Thu, 10 Feb 2011 18:17:06 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Brian Connell http://www.westglobal.com/blog/2008/06/26/blind-men-elephants-and-snake-oil/comment-page-1/#comment-20 Brian Connell Thu, 26 Jun 2008 23:05:09 +0000 http://www.westglobal.com/blog/?p=17#comment-20 Hi Opher, thanks for the response. Perhaps I was being too unclear. Traditional analytics is often used to determine a value. For example, what is the likelyhood of this transaction being fraudulent? Answer = 0.76. Etc, etc. How is this used in CEP? Answer, it isn't .... or at least I don't believe it will be used in this way. In CEP, we will instead determine a value that needs to be detected, and react accordingly. For example, when probability for a fraudulent transaction reaches 0.85 or greater, then shut down the account. In my view, this is not analytics (although the maths might be pretty similar). This is pattern/situation detection. Furthermore, an interesting problem, is that the situation detection may be "distributed" in such a way that the description of the final pattern or situation is an abstraction of earlier patterns and situations. This causes problems when trying to maintain definitions - each abstraction must also be aware of changes to its dependencies... Brian Hi Opher, thanks for the response.

Perhaps I was being too unclear.

Traditional analytics is often used to determine a value. For example, what is the likelyhood of this transaction being fraudulent? Answer = 0.76. Etc, etc.

How is this used in CEP? Answer, it isn’t …. or at least I don’t believe it will be used in this way.

In CEP, we will instead determine a value that needs to be detected, and react accordingly. For example, when probability for a fraudulent transaction reaches 0.85 or greater, then shut down the account.

In my view, this is not analytics (although the maths might be pretty similar). This is pattern/situation detection.

Furthermore, an interesting problem, is that the situation detection may be “distributed” in such a way that the description of the final pattern or situation is an abstraction of earlier patterns and situations.

This causes problems when trying to maintain definitions – each abstraction must also be aware of changes to its dependencies…

Brian

]]> By: Opher Etzion http://www.westglobal.com/blog/2008/06/26/blind-men-elephants-and-snake-oil/comment-page-1/#comment-19 Opher Etzion Thu, 26 Jun 2008 21:16:26 +0000 http://www.westglobal.com/blog/?p=17#comment-19 Hi Brian, advanced analytics refer to the use of statistical techniques, machine learning, bayesian networks in order to mine patterns, predict future events, infer statistical causality etc... there are certainly tpyes of applications that require it, and some others can work perfectly well with determinstic situations. Hi Brian, advanced analytics refer to the use of statistical techniques, machine learning, bayesian networks in order to mine patterns, predict future events, infer statistical causality etc… there are certainly tpyes of applications that require it, and some others can work perfectly well with determinstic situations.

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